Commentary tends to be reactive, focusing on the success (or otherwise) of individual auctions. A more revealing way of assessing the state of the market is to look at total sales figures over a period of time. When we plot the dollar value of art by Aboriginal artists sold at auction between 1988 and 2011 (Figure 1), a couple of things become apparent. For one thing, the ebb and flow of the Aboriginal art market is nothing new. During the last boom and bust cycle that occurred during the late 1980s and mid-1990s, sales of Aboriginal art dropped from a peak in 1988 to a rather dismal trough in 1992. Most of these artworks were watercolours from the Hermannsburg School.
As for the state of things today, the 2011 total of $8.16 million in sales is comparable to the amount sold in 2002, when the market in general was starting to heat up. “Back to 2002 levels? That’s not too bad”, you may well think. But before you get too excited, consider the same figures adjusted for inflation (Figure 2). The boom and bust of the ‘80s and ‘90s is still there, though it is interesting to see that that the adjusted total for 1988 isn’t far off the mark set in 1996. But it also shows that, in real terms, the value of Aboriginal art sold at auction in 2011 is on a par with the figures for 1998, rather than 2002. 1998 was the year after Sotheby’s launched their stand-alone auctions of contemporary Aboriginal art, but before the sector expanded during the ‘noughties. So, dollar for dollar, today’s market certainly isn’t what it once was.
The ‘noughties’ market expansion was kicked along by the interest of collectors who were cashed up with discretionary spending money drawn against rising real estate values and returns from the stock market. Others were eager to jump on the art-boom bandwagon by investing via self-managed super funds. Predictably, these buyers withdrew from the art market as the economy contracted in the post-GFC world and after the revision of superannuation laws. International collectors also retreated under the effects of the financial crisis, and a rising Australian dollar. The absence of buyers looking for large, contemporary Aboriginal paintings is immediately apparent today, both in the auction rooms, and in the results sheets. Perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised to find that the collectors who do remain still chase the artwork that caught their eye during the late 1990s. Well-priced early boards, historically significant canvases, and barks and artefacts still find buyers, as evidenced by the recent Kluge sale at Mossgreen, and Sotheby’s mid-year auction.
But is it all doom and gloom for the secondary market in Aboriginal art? Before you call the undertaker, consider the following. Another way of judging the state of play is to measure the figures against other art market sectors. When we break down the Australian art auction record by sector, it’s pretty clear that Sotheby’s launch of major ‘stand-alone’ auctions in 1997 was the single most important factor for establishing a secondary-market for Aboriginal art (Figure 3). The market share jumped from 4% in 1996 to 13% in 1997. Prior to that, the sale of Aboriginal art was responsible for generating just 1-2% of auction revenue in Australia. Although during the halcyon days that fell between 2004 and 2007 the total market share for Aboriginal art rose as high as 18%, the average for the sector between 1997 and 2011 was 12%. In light of this, the drop to 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011 in itself doesn’t seem undue cause for alarm, providing the market share doesn’t drop any further.
So it seems that the loss in confidence suffered by the Aboriginal art auction market is not that different to the decline in prices for art by non-Indigenous Australian artists. It’s not too big a stretch to say that after the watershed year of 1997 when the volume of auction trade in Aboriginal art jumped suddenly and dramatically, the sector has ebbed and flowed in concert with movements across the entire auction spectrum. It’s not that the Aboriginal market alone boomed during the early- and mid-noughties – the entire market expanded and contracted over the same period, and at a comparable rate.
The greatest concern is not how much art is being bought and sold, but which Aboriginal art is attracting buyers’ interest. What does the changing landscape mean for the artists and art centre administrators in remote communities who are awaiting a much-anticipated bounty in the form of resale royalties gathered from the sale of contemporary Aboriginal art at auction?
A hint of what may be to come is found on Sotheby’s website in their post-auction postmortem; and the picture it paints isn’t great. The featured artwork is not a large Western Desert canvas, or even an early Papunya board. The illustrated work of art is by an unknown artist: ‘Fine Parrying Shield from South East Australia’.
Artist unknown.
No resale royalty pending there.
Figure 1: Total sales of Aboriginal art at auction, 1988-2011
(Figures: Australian Art Sales Digest)
1988 $666,000
1989 $527,000
1990 $169,000
1991 $181,000
1992 $157,000
1993 $315,000
1994 $715,000
1995 $1,354,000
1996 $1,421,000
1997 $4,421,000
1998 $5,546,000
1999 $5,440,000
2000 $6,962,000
2001 $6,917,000
2002 $8,272,000
2003 $10,918,000
2004 $15,911,000
2005 $15,411,000
2006 $16,543,000
2007 $26,455,000
2008 $13,407,000
2009 $12,552,000
2010 $10,101,000
2011 $8,164,000
Figure 2: Total sales of Aboriginal art at auction, 1988-2011 adjusted for inflation.
(Based on data from the Australian Art Sales Digest)
1988 $1,328,000
1989 $977,448
1990 $292,000
1991 $303,000
1992 $260,000
1993 $513,000
1994 $1,143,000
1995 $2,068,000
1996 $2,115,000
1997 $6,565,000
1998 $8,165,000
1999 $7,893,000
2000 $9,700,000
2001 $9,202,000
2002 $10,686,000
2003 $13,729,000
2004 $19,549,000
2005 $18,438,000
2006 $19,113,000
2007 $29,870,000
2008 $14,507,000
2009 $13,345,000
2010 $10,435,000
2011 $8,164,000
Figure 3: Breakdown of the total $ value sales in the Australian art auction market by sector.
(Based on data from the Australian Art Sales Digest)
Year Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal art International art
Australian art
1988 89% 2% 9%
1989 93% 1% 6%
1990 91% 1% 8%
1991 90% 1% 9%
1992 94% 1% 6%
1993 91% 2% 7%
1994 87% 3% 10%
1995 87% 5% 8%
1996 88% 4% 8%
1997 76% 13% 11%
1998 78% 11% 11%
1999 83% 8% 9%
2000 87% 9% 4%
2001 84% 10% 6%
2002 85% 10% 4%
2003 84% 12% 4%
2004 74% 18% 8%
2005 77% 16% 7%
2006 80% 16% 4%
2007 83% 15% 2%
2008 75% 12% 13%
2009 80% 14% 6%
2010 84% 10% 6%
2011 83% 8% 9%
