The holistic auctioneer-calculated sales results of 65% by volume and 73% by value deserve greater investigation. In fact, closer analysis of the prices achieved and patterns of bidding reveals a very interesting and more nuanced set of results that gives cause for hope in a market that has been slumberous and patchy in the first quarter of 2010
Since late 2008 the top end of the market has been soft with far fewer paintings successfully changing hands, at least through public auction, with many vendors preferring the discretion afforded by private treaty sales. Last night’s poor sale rate of 30% in both the $200,000-500,000 bracket and the $500,000+ bracket suggests that buyers in the upper echelons are still thin on the ground.
Amongst the non-starters were works highlighted in the presale report; the two major Russell Drysdale paintings Deserted Outstation (Lot 45 ) and The Stockman (Lot 16 ), John Olsen’s Bungle Bungle Ranges (Lot 95 ) and Tim Maguire’s Untitled (Lot 101 ).
On a brighter note, paintings that found new homes included, unsurprisingly, the front cover painting, Arthur Streeton’s classic Coogee Bay 1907 (Lot 29 ) which achieved a very respectable and solid result of $750,000 (IBP). Depictions of Sydney Harbour continued to be embraced with Lloyd Rees’ Sydney-The Source (Lot 85 ) astutely bought by a prominent but private Melbourne family below low estimate but setting a new record at $504,000.
Ethel Carrick Fox’s Watching the Fleet from the Domain 1913(Lot 32 ) fared well too, knocked down at the top end of its estimate, realizing $348,000. This is a Top 5 auction result for the artist, a remarkable result for a painting that is half the size of the other four. Rupert Bunny’s beautiful work, Femme au Miroir (Lot 28 ) appeared to have captured the heart of one lone bidder, selling at reserve and realizing a modest $240,000.
Packing the knockout punch and providing the excitement for the night was Sidney Nolan’s pocket-sized Ned Kelly (Lot 58 ). “Underbelly” fever and fascination possibly inspired bidders, who hotly contested the magnetic image of Australia’s most notorious criminal. As bidding reached $400,000 auction stalwart Denis Savill had his eye on the prize but was finally blown away by a telephone bidder, Michael Nagy at $624,000, a result that obliterated its estimate of $120-180,000. Was this a lesson in the dangers of underestimating… proven when a pint sized work delivers a kingpin hit?!
The good news is that sale rates were turned on their head and enjoyed far healthier percentages below the $200,000 mark. A close look at the breakdown makes for interesting reading; a 100% sale rate was achieved for works with a low estimate between 100,000-200,000; 80% for works estimated between $50,000-100,000; 66% for works estimated 20,000-50,000 and 70% for works estimated below $20,000. Another facet to the story was found when analyzing where the hammer fell in relation to auction estimates. During the downturn/ GFC, the majority of works have sold at low estimate or even below. Last night there was a marked shift away from this trend with more 53% of works selling at mid to high estimate or beyond. An encouraging sign that suggests the market is slowly resetting itself in subtle ways
The hurdle to greater sales growth simply rests with supply and demand. While Sotheby’s presented a well balanced offering, the pool of collectors has temporarily contracted and they are more mindful of acquisition costs. When supply outstrips demand the factors that prompt the collectors to raise a bid are narrowed down to the key basics; rarity, quality, compositional strength and attractive pricing.
The Elioth Gruner offering of 11 paintings provides a case for the matching of attractive pricing and aesthetic appeal; the estimates were fair, so the prices achieved appeared to reflect the correlation between the strength of composition and collector’s level of aesthetic appreciation.
The fate of John Brack’s drawings also encapsulate aspects of the argument. Despite the media coverage of Brack’s Study for Barry Humphries in the Character of Edna Everage (Lot 77 ), the work didn’t attract a whisper of interest –maybe its estimate appeared ambitious when so closely contrasted with the more substantial and historically significant Self-Portrait 1948 (Lot 47 ). This work itself eclipsed its upper estimate selling to Joan McClelland on behalf of an institution for $108,000.
Similarly, Joel Elengberg’s two sculptures experienced opposing fates. The signature work Mask 1978 (Lot 87 ) was snapped up at high estimate for $192,000 whilst the less characteristic Mask V 1979 (Lot 90 ) did not elicit a single bid. Elenberg’s work may be rare but the market is at the apex of discernment both in uptake of work and prices paid.
Lastly Hans Heysen’s The Blue Door, Venice 1902 estimated at $8-12,000 demonstrated the reliable pulling power of a low estimate. Enthusiastic bidding ensued and saw the work double its upper estimate to sell for $28,040
Perhaps if Sotheby’s had been able to set lower estimates or reduce reserves prior to auction, they may have more successfully tapped into the re-emerging interest in the art sector. (There is plenty of confidence in the property market, surely it won’t be long till the art market is bathed in some of this glow!). While trophy hunters are currently a rare breed, the increasing support of the middle market is a sign that greater confidence is slowly returning and while it is still a price-sensitive market, it is thankfully a more lively one.
